Impact of Trade Sanctions on the International Energy Trade Pattern: Based on Simulation Analysis of Partial Equilibrium and Trade Network

Under the current complex global energy trade relations, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States have had a major impact on the international energy trade pattern. Based on the 2020 world energy trade data, this paper uses the 12-country GSIM model and the trade network model to simulate four possible trade sanctions scenarios and analyze the four effects of trade sanctions, namely, destructive effect, leakage effect, deflection effect and inhibition effect, on the changes of energy trade volume, output, welfare level and trade pattern. The results show that: (1) for the sanction-offering countries and Russia, when the degree of trade sanctions is relatively light, the trade volume and output of the countries are almost unchanged; when the degree of trade sanctions is large, the energy trade between the sanction-offering countries and Russia will be seriously affected by the trade disruption effect, which will eventually lead to a significant decline in the trade volume and output of both sides; moreover, there is a leakage effect in the process of trade sanctions, but the leakage effect cannot offset the impact of the destructive effect on the sanction-offering countries and Russia. (2) For non-sanctioned countries, the energy import trade with Russia has increased under the influence of the trade deflection effect of sanctions, while the energy trade with sanction-offering countries is affected by both the deflection effect and the inhibition effect, and the trade volume has increased and decreased. (3) From the perspective of welfare, with the increase of trade sanctions, the destructive effect of trade sanctions has led to a decline in the net social welfare of the sanction-offering countries and Russia, and the net welfare loss of the EU even exceeds that of Russia. (4) The closeness of the energy trade pattern network will decrease with the aggravation of sanctions. The focus of Russia's energy exports will shift from Europe to Asia. The EU's energy imports will shift from Russia before the sanctions to the United States and Middle East countries, and the Middle East countries will become the most important energy import regions of Japan and South Korea.