Impact of Uncertain Supply on Equilibrium Market Penetration of Vehicle Route Guidance Systems

To investigate the impact of the link capacity degradation degree on the equilibrium market penetration of advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) , the travelers were divided into two classes: "travelers equipped with ATIS" and "travelers unequipped with ATIS". Assuming that two classes of travelers made their route choices based on travel time budget at a given reliability, the equilibrium market penetration model was established by the average travel time budget saving derived from ATIS service between an origin-destination pair, which could be determined by the uncertain road network mixed stochastic user equilibrium modeling approach. A heuristic solution algorithm for solving the model was proposed and some numerical studies on a test network were conducted to analyze the impacts of the information quality, the capacity degradation degree and the level of traffic demand on the market penetration. Results show that the concentration phenomenon is more likely to occur in an uncertain road network. In addition, the improvement of information quality may not be able to increase the market penetration, which depends on the congestion degree of the entire road network more significantly.