Accident Prediction Model of Freeway

On the basis of section division and influence factors' analysis and the collected data of freeway Accident Prediction Model was established with Generalized Linear Regression method.Through comparing the regression results of Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-inflated Poisson and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial 4 kinds of statistical models, the Negative Binomial distribution model was chosen to be the best APM finally.The elasticity analysis for determining the marginal effects of the independent variables was introduced, and the results indicated that environmental variables and traffic flow variables have great influence on freeway accident.