Time-loading Model of Evacuation Traffic Demand for Large-scale Activities

Traffic demand of emergency evacuation during large-scale activities appears obvious timevarying characteristic, thus time dimension of evacuation traffic demand distribution needs to be described precisely. This paper analyzes the staged time distribution of evacuation populations in stadium entering into the network, presents the influence factors to evacuation time of population outside the stadium, and provides an improved time-varying curve function of evacuation traffic demand. Take the concert of Jolin at Nanjing Olympic sports center stadium as an example, suppose that a virtual bomb threat event happens, population in and around the stadium need to be evacuated. Through simulation and analysis by TransCAD, evacuation demand, proportion of different modes of transportation and response curve of evacuation behavior can be forecasted and acquired.