Study on the Prediction of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential of Agricultural Production—A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

As the contradiction between the increasing demand for agricultural production and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission control targets in China becomes more prominent, it is necessary to identify more comprehensively the emission and reduction potentials of the agricultural sector. This study aims to estimate the present emissions of agricultural production in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTH),considering direct and indirect emissions of agricultural inputs, production objects and wastes, and to predict the future emission trends under different scenarios during 2021—2035. In addition, this research analyzed the emission reduction potential of different segments of agricultural production from different control measures. The results showed that the total GHG emissions from agricultural production in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2020 would be 46.97 million tons of CO₂-eq, of which enteric methane emissions and fertilizer use will account for 30.2% and 24.7% of the total emissions, respectively. Tangshan, Shijiazhuang, and Baoding were the the top-emitted cities. In the Business-As- Usual(BAU) scenario, total emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region would increase by 19.06% in 2035, with livestock and poultry farming always dominating GHG emissions. Agricultural energy use would account for 18.6% of emissions and showed continuous growth in the coming years. Compared with the BAU scenario, the emission reduction in 2035 under the Combined Options (CO) scenario would be 9.14 million tons, a reduction of 11.3%. The three most effective mitigation technologies would be compost addition inhibitors, feed quality improvements, and organic fertilizer combined with nitrogen fertilizer. This study provides valuable insights for effective mitigation measures and control strategies for policy makers.