Research on Operation Optimization of CCHP System Involving Load Uncertainty Under Microclimate Condition

How to accurately identify the impact of climate change on building's energy demand and exploit the advantages of combined cooling heating and power (CCHP) system with energy conservation, consumption reduction and flexible energy provision mechanism has received more attentions. In this research, PRECIS model was used to predict future temperature of Shanghai and predicted results were incorporated into TRNSYS software in order to calculate the energy demand in the future. Next, combined with historical energy demand, the normal probability distribution of energy demand considering climate change was developed. In addition, the effective integration of regional climate simulation, load prediction, uncertainty identification and operation optimization was innovatively achieved through incorporating uncertain user demand into pre-established operation optimization model of CCHP system. Finally, the schedule pattern based on stochastic chance constrained programming method reflects the trade-off between system economy and reliability and provides the important reference for the operation optimization of CCHP system.