Scenarios Prediction of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction in the Road Transport Sector of Beijing-Tianjin-Heibei Region

In order to solve problems of energy consumption, greenhouse gases and air pollutants emissions caused by road transport, an urban road transport model for energy consumption and emission was developed in this paper based on long range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP). And then the energy consumption reduction potential and the emissions reduction potential of CO₂ and air pollutants of different control strategies and policies using scenario analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in 2015-2030 were assessed. Results show that the advanced fuel economy scenario is the most effective measure to reducing energy demand, and it can save 22.4% of energy consumption. The high-emission vehicle elimination can reduce energy consumption more effectively in short-term than in long-term, the ratio of saving energy is 19.1%. Further intensifying efforts to green energy vehicle promotion scenario would have better effect on reduction of CO₂ and NO_x emission in long-term in Beijing. Advanced fuel economy has a better effect on reduction of CO₂, CO, NO_x and PM_2.5 emission in Tianjin and Hebei. Comparing with BAU scenario, the Integrated Scenario saved 37.1% of energy consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei areas in 2030, and the emissions of CO₂ decreased by 36.8%. It had a better effect on reduction of CO and HC, and the ratio of emission reduction was 45.7% and 43.8% respectively.