Prediction of Rutting of Asphalt Pavement Based on Combined Model

To predict the rutting of asphalt pavement, Pavement-Me prediction model (PME) with the localized input parameter and a dynamic grey prediction model (DGM (1,1)) with data timeliness were established based on the PME and grey prediction theory, in the current rutting situation in a highway of Shaanxi Province. The mathematical statistic method was used to conduct the prediction research of rutting based on a combined model. The results reveal that the fitting precision of PME model is 0.963, and the DGM (1,1) model is 0.941, which can be used as a submodel of the combined model. The prediction precision of DGM-PME combined model is higher than that of single submodel, in which the combined model which adopts error square and reciprocal weighting has the highest prediction precision, and its rank allocation is L ₁₂=0.601 and L ₂₂=0.399, the maximum of prediction precision can be 0.0045. The prediction result of the combined model at some periods is inferior to that of some single prediction models, which belongs to normal error range. It is feasible to replace the single model with the DGM-PME combined model to predict the rutting of asphalt pavement. And it is more suitable to use the combined model established in this paper to predict rutting development tendency for the project-level asphalt pavement.