Cities' Ability Evaluation of Earthquake Resistance and Hazardous Prevention Based on Systems Dynamic

It is difficult to solve the problem of quantifying the cities' ability of earthquake resistance and hazardous prevention because it has the characteristics of nonlinear,complexity,dynamics and selforganizing.The paper proposes an evaluation model for cities' ability of earthquake resistance and hazardous prevention and achieves dynamic assessment based on system dynamics and earthquake time series.Firstly,the relevant research achievements on cities' ability of earthquake resistance and hazardous prevention were reviewed,and the disadvantages of previous achievements were summarized.Secondly,the basic theory and framework of the evaluation model was given based on system dynamics.Finally,three models that the emergency evacuation in key areas before the quake,the short-term evacuation in weak areas and the buried casualties and emergency rescue after the quake were conducted by using system dynamics.The models provide references for urban earthquake relief through simulations and the practicability of system dynamics on cities' earthquake resistance and hazardous prevention was verified.