- 中文社会科学引文索引 ( CSSCI ) 来源期刊
- 中国人文社会科学期刊AMI综合评价 ( A刊 ) 核心期刊
- 中文核心期刊要目总览核心期刊
- 中国科技核心期刊 ( 社会科学 )
- 全国高校社科精品期刊
- 北京高校人文社会科学名刊
| Citation: |
YANG Ge. Population Expectations and Policy Prospects After the Universal Two-child Policy[J]. JOURNAL OF BEIJING UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2016, 16(4): 25-33.
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China's population trend would be actively addressed by the universal two-child policy. This paper gives the population prediction based on the constant population policy. The conclusions are as follows:The new policy will not bring a sharp rebound in fertility and population size, the peak difference of newborn population before and after the policy will be over 4 million; policy adjustment will improve the peak population and structure, delay the labor supply decay, but a negligible role. From the experience of other countries, the trend in fertility decline seems inevitable. Therefore, the universal two-child policy is not the end of the policy adjustment. It will continue to monitor fertility level, further adjust the population policy; establish and improve the “family friendly” policy system; cope with the negative effects from the social system and the economic system.
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