Why Do People Move Out of Northeast China? A Perspective From Industrialization and Urbanization:An Analysis Based on County Level Panel Data of Heilongjiang Province

Until 2014, the economy in northeast China has been growing steadily since the central government took measures to promote the old industrial base of northeast China. Meanwhile, lots of people moved out of there, especially the urban residents. Understanding this paradox is a key to take measures to curb the emigration trend in the northeast China, as well as to promote the regional economic growth using the relationship between the population change and the economic growth. Analysis on the statistic data, especially on SYS GMM regression of county panel data of Heilongjiang province, we concluded that the industrial strategy of the heavy industrialization and urbanization with administrative intervene is the important factors that led to the emigration of the northeast China. Double pseudo high levels of the industrialization and urbanization made the employment grow slowly. Without the sufficient employment, the emigration is inevitable. Thus, the great change on the industrialization and urbanization, along with the corresponding measures as well as deepening of marketization is the important way of changing the emigration in northeast China.