Re-evaluation of Low-carbon Pilot Project Effects Towards the Goals of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality

As a pioneer in achievingthe goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China's low-carbon pilot project has made an active exploration for the country's low-carbon development transition. Most of the existing studies have confirmed the positive effects of the low-carbon pilot project, but some of them have also pointed out the dilemmas of the low-carbon pilots. As the low-carbon pilot project comes to an end and China moves towards its goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, this paper conducts a re-evaluation of the low-carbon status and carbon emissions reduction trends of the low-carbon pilots. The findings suggest that the results of the three low-carbon pilots may not be as positive as most evaluation studies suggest, and that the low-carbon pilots as a whole have not yet achieved significant low-carbon status and carbon emissions reduction trends. Only the first and second batches of low-carbon pilots, which started in 2010 and 2012, showed carbon emissions reduction trends, but they still did not enter a low-carbon state; while the third batch of low-carbon pilots, which started in 2017, did not show significant effects in terms of carbon emissions reduction trends and low-carbon states. In the phase of policy experimentation, the lack of guidance from higher-level laws, master plans and accounting systems, and compatible incentive mechanisms has challenged the effectiveness of low-carbon development. At the stage of moving towards the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the central government should strengthen the compatibility of the guidance and incentive mechanisms of institutional arrangements, including improving the legal system to deal with climate change, enhancing the feasibility and binding force of planning, and building a long-term mechanism with compatible incentives to ensure the comprehensive, stable and sustainable policy making and implementation of low-carbon development at the local level.