Study on the Evaluation of Digital Trade Development and the Influencing Factors——Based on Panel Data of 49 Countries

Based on the digital trade data of 49 major economies in the world from 2014 to 2020, this study constructs an evaluation system of digital trade development with 6 first-class indexes and 22 specific indexes. The entropy weight method is used to calculate the weights, descriptive statistical analysis and kernel density estimation method are used to depict the dynamic evolution of digital trade development in various countries, and the panel regression analysis is used to test the factors that influence the digital trade development index. The results show that: the digital trade development indices of the United States and South Korea remain in the forefront of the world from 2014 to 2020. The digital trade development of developed countries in Europe and America is better than that of developing countries. According to the score of China's digital trade development index, China has strong advantages in digital innovation and digital trade scale, but the barriers to digital trade are still high, and there is still a certain gap between China and developed countries in digital security and digital skills. From the dynamic evolution of digital trade development in various countries around the world, the digital trade development in 49 sample countries is divided to some extent, but the imbalance is reduced. From the perspective of influencing factors, the development of digital trade is influenced by the level of economic development, the process of urbanization, the upgrading of industrial structure and the degree of opening to the outside world, and it has a heterogeneous influence on developed countries and developing countries. Finally, this study puts forward some relevant policy suggestions for the development of China's digital trade, such as orderly improving the openness of digital trade, participating in negotiations related to digital trade rules, perfecting the security system of digital trade, further accelerating the construction of China's digital infrastructure and promoting the training of digital trade talents.