Quantitative Analysis and Prediction of Policy Topic Changes of Air Pollution Control Policies in China

Based on the final assessment in 2018 of The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, the paper has made an analysis on the pattern of policy topic changes in view of providing a decision-making basis for policy promulgation in next stage. Using 128 national air pollution control policies in 2005-2018 as samples, the text keywords correlation network is constructed, the change path of policy topics in different historical stages obtained by subgroup recognition and topic similarity calculation, and the pattern of policy topic changes and future trends analyzed. It is found that the patterns of topic evolution and integration appear in the adjacent stage of topic change paths, and no same topic is found; policy topics are changed from general to specific; the measures from single to compound; and the role of technological innovation is constantly strengthened. The key topics of air pollution control in the late 13th Five-Year Plan and even longer period will be the "joint control of interregional defense in areas and periods of heavy pollution", "further upgrading of energy and other key industries" and "R&D and application of energy saving and emission reduction technology and equipment".