尹环, 王维真, 张忠占. 考虑疗效和安全性及其相关性的最优两阶段设计[J]. 北京工业大学学报, 2019, 45(12): 1269-1276. DOI: 10.11936/bjutxb2019040004
    引用本文: 尹环, 王维真, 张忠占. 考虑疗效和安全性及其相关性的最优两阶段设计[J]. 北京工业大学学报, 2019, 45(12): 1269-1276. DOI: 10.11936/bjutxb2019040004
    YIN Huan, WANG Weizhen, ZHANG Zhongzhan. Optimal Two-stage Designs With Consideration of Response and Safety and Their Correlation[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Technology, 2019, 45(12): 1269-1276. DOI: 10.11936/bjutxb2019040004
    Citation: YIN Huan, WANG Weizhen, ZHANG Zhongzhan. Optimal Two-stage Designs With Consideration of Response and Safety and Their Correlation[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Technology, 2019, 45(12): 1269-1276. DOI: 10.11936/bjutxb2019040004

    考虑疗效和安全性及其相关性的最优两阶段设计

    Optimal Two-stage Designs With Consideration of Response and Safety and Their Correlation

    • 摘要: 在癌症的Ⅱ期临床试验研究中,新药的疗效和安全性的研究尤为重要.考虑到伦理和经费等问题,减少受试人数是试验设计的主要研究目标,通常采用多阶段优化设计达到减小样本量的效果,最流行的是两阶段优化设计.在综合考虑疗效和安全性的基础上,进一步考虑两者之间的正相关性,提出了相应的精确检验问题,利用条件期望证明了势函数关于疗效率pr和安全率pt的单调不减性质,得出最大一类错误率在两点达到,最小功效在一条线上达到.在此基础上,在严格控制最大一类错误率和最小功效的条件下,以最小化期望样本量为目标,构造出了最优两阶段设计,从而为这类试验的最优设计提供了一个精确方法.另外,由于新检验问题式(2)的备择空间是原检验问题式(1)备择空间的子集,推出原检验问题式(1)的最优两阶段设计也是新检验问题式(2)的两阶段设计.

       

      Abstract: In phase Ⅱ clinical trial for cancer study, the efficiency and safety of a new drug are particularly important. Under consideration of ethics and cost, the optimal multi-stage designs, especially the two-stage designs, were used to reduce the sample size. In this paper, to have a positive correlation between the efficiency and safety, a new set of hypotheses and exact tests were proposed, proving that the power function is nondecreasing in the response rate pr and the safety rate pt, respectively, using conditional expectation. The type Ⅰ error rate achieves its maximum at two points and the power achieves its minimum on a line. With control of maximum type Ⅰ error rate and minimum power, the optimal two-stage designs were derived to minimize the expected total sample size, thus an exact construction method was presented for the optimal design of two-stage trials. Additionally, since the alternative space in Eq.(2) is a subset of that in Eq.(1), an optimal two-stage design for Eq.(1) is also a two-stage design for Eq.(2).

       

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