城市土地开发交通生成预测方法的探讨

    Research on Trip Generation Forecast Method Related to City Land Uses

    • 摘要: 针对城市土地开发项目产生的新增交通量的问题,以北京市部分区域的居住区、商业区和办公区为例,结合我国城市土地开发状况、交通特点和经济水平,建立土地利用出行发生量和吸引量与土地利用相关指标、社会经济指标等变量之间的定量关系,进而根据规划年的土地利用推算出规划年土地开发的居民出行发生量和吸引量,并就土地开发交通生成预测方法中应注意的问题进行了初步探讨.建立其出行生成模型.

       

      Abstract: According to the newly increased volume of traffic of city land-use item, the trip generation models about usual residence and shopping center and office building in some area of Beijing are introduced respectively. At present, most of trip generation models are static in China, which do not consider the dynamic feedback relationship between city land uses and trip generation, and so the result in the forecast is not precise. Through analysis on the relationship between city land uses and trip generation and based on Chinese city traffic characters, basic traffic research situation, land development situation and the level of economic development, this study establishes the quantitative relationship between the trip generation and trip attraction and the relative indexes of land uses and social economic indexes, then forecasts future trip generation and trip attraction of land use according to the relative data of the proposed development, and simultaneously the elementary research on the important questions about estimatation method related to trip generation of land development is presented.

       

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