山区双车道公路尾随相撞事故与道路线形的关系

    Effects of Geometric Features of Rear-end Crash Accidents on Mountainous Two-Lane Highways

    • 摘要: 为了改善我国山区双车道公路的安全状况,选取负二项分布作为回归分析的模型基础,应用同向纵坡的概念将甘肃省某山区双车道公路长为139 km的路段划分成94个同向纵坡单元,运用Stata 9.0统计软件对该路段内2003—2005年所发生的100起尾随相撞事故与8个反映道路设计要素的线形变量进行了广义的负二项回归分析.结果表明,山区双车道公路上的尾随相撞事故与累计坡长呈很强的正相关关系,累计坡长越长,尾随相撞的事故数越多.

       

      Abstract: In order to improve the safety level of two-lane highways in mountainous areas,this paper investigated the relationship between highway geometric features and rear-end crash accidents.By using negative binomial generalized models and separating the 139 kilometers highway segment into 94 successive vertical slope units,the statistical software Stata 9.0 was used to evaluate the effects of 8 variables which were based on roadway geometric characteristics of the accidents of rear-end crashes occured from 2003 to 2005 on the mountainous twolane highway in Gansu Province.The variables which influence the accidents of rear-end crashes significantly was accumulated by vertical slope length.The results suggest that there are strong positive relationship between the accidents of rear-end crashes and accumulated vertical length.Therefore avoiding long vertical length as much as possible in highway design is suggested.

       

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