摘要:
回顾国外有关车速与事故之间的研究成果可以发现,事故预测模型一般只考虑了平均车速、速度的方差和速度梯度等指标,而对大、小车速度差与事故之间的关系研究并未涉及.基于中国高速公路上大车比例较大,且大车速度与小车速度差较大的特点,以一条高速公路连续3a的事故数据为基础,利用统计回归的方法研究了大、小车速度差与事故率之间的关系,建立了相应的回归模型.结果表明,大、小车的速度差是引起交通事故的重要原因之一,速度差和事故率之间呈正相关关系,即随着平均速度差的增大,事故率增大.
关键词:
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高速公路
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道路安全
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速度
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事故
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回归分析
Abstract:
Freeway should be, and has been the safest highway compared to other types of highway due to its highest design standard. Whereas these years Chinese government was forced to pay more attention to freeway safety problems due to its leading fatality rates despite its luxury infrastructure criteria. Research on crash rates and speed has been achieved by many people, but paper about the relationship between crash rates and average speed difference between cars and large vehicles on freeway kept rare. This research explored this relationship using three-year crash data and traffic flow data of one freeway of Beijing suburban section. From the result it can be concluded that speed difference and crash rates are correlative, and similar empirical functions have been obtained using compound, growth, and exponential curve to fit. The general law extracted from this paper showes that with the increasing of the average speed difference, the crash rates increase rapidly.
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