地震预报决策的Bayes分析
Bayes Analysis of Earthquake Prediction Decision-making
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摘要: 提出了应用补充信息进行Bayes分析的决策方法,并给出了一种估计状态参数分布的综合评定法和确定预报发布最佳时机的阈值法,以提高地震预报决策的效果.Abstract: Based on the risk decision of earthquake prediction, a method for decision named Bayes analysis by using additional information is introduced. A synthetic estimate for state parameter distribution and a threshold value method of the thime point for issuing earthquake prediction are given in order to increasing the quakity of earthquake prediction decision-making.