混沌理论与可信域相结合的深基坑开挖侧移预测
Lateral Displacement Prediction of Deep Excavation Combining Chaos Theory With Credible Regions
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摘要: 为了进一步扩展深基坑开挖侧移预测的基本理论及方法,应用混沌时间序列理论,结合深基坑开挖侧移规律,提出了基于加权一阶局域法与可信域相结合的深基坑开挖侧移预报模型.将实测数据扩展到多维空间,重构延迟坐标状态空间,求出最大Lyapunov指数,由加权一阶局域法求出预测值,由邻近点距离差、变形速率等影响因素确定可信域.工程实测表明,该模型提高了深基坑开挖预测的精度和可靠度,可用于深基坑开挖侧向位移变形预测.Abstract: This article applying chaotic time series theory and combining lateral laws of deep excavation, presents a lateral displacement prediction model of deep excavation based on combining local function approximation of weight in least square with credible regions. The objective of this paper is to enrich and develop the theory and method of lateral displacement prediction in deep excavation. Delay phase space is reconstructed and the maximal Lyapunov exponent is calculated from the field measured values. The prediction values were calculated by the local function approximation of weight in least square. The credible regions are determined by distances of reference points and speeds of lateral deformation. A new program was made. The prediction model calculating precision and reliability are increased by the validation of field measured values, and it can be used for lateral deformation forecasting purposes in deep excavation.