分对数模型在城市快速路交通状态预测中的应用

杨兆升; 龚勃文; 林赐云; 张欣伟

分对数模型在城市快速路交通状态预测中的应用

1. 吉林大学交通学院, 长春 130022;
2. 陕西理工学院经济贸易系, 陕西汉中 723001

基金项目:

“863”国家高技术研究发展计划资助项目（2007AA12Z2242，2007AA11Z218，2007AA11Z245）.

详细信息

作者简介:
杨兆升(1938-),男,辽宁大连人,教授,博士生导师.

中图分类号: U491.2
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2008-08-01
- 网络出版日期: 2022-12-06

Logit Model Application in Expressway Traffic Condition Prediction

1. College of Traffic and Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130022, China;
2. Ecomomy & Trade Department, Shaanxi University of Technology, Hanzhong 723001, China

摘要

摘要: 在分析相邻检测器截面间交通流的高度非线性和时空耦合性特点的基础上,结合上海市某一快速路段环型线圈检测器数据和浮动车GPS数据,采用数据挖掘技术提取检测器截面间的交通流时空数据.运用多项式分对数模型对所提取的时空数据进行统计分类分析,依托特征参数建立交通状态多项K-Logit指数模型.结合快速路匝道控制措施,采用VISSIM COM与VC++6.0为仿真平台,对实验数据进行仿真,结果表明:分对数模型对交通状态的预测精度能达到93.65%,行程时间平均缩减了17.1%,车辆延误降低了11.9%,行车速度提高了14.6%.
- 多项K-Logit指数模型 /
- 多源数据融合 /
- 交通状态预测
Abstract: Based on the analysis result of the high no-linear and time-spatial coupling of the traffic flow between the detectors segment, data mining technology is used to extract the time-spatial data of traffic flow with the detector data and probe vehicle GPS data of the expressway in Shanghai.The K-deformed multinomial logit model is put forward to predict the traffic condition, and the characteristic parameters are used to setup the K-deformed multinomial logit model for the traffic condition prediction.The data validation of the expressway in Shanghai is simulated on the platform of VISSIM COM and Microsoft Visual C+ +6.0, and the results show that the precision of traffic condition prediction using the K-deformed multinomial logit model is 93. 46%, average travel time and vehicle delay reduce by 17.1% and 11.9% respectively, average vehicle speed improves by 14.6%.
- K-deformed multinomial logit model /
- multi-source data fusion /
- traffic condition prediction