基于演化博弈理论的有限理性交通选择行为模型

    A Drivers' Choice Behavior Model Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

    • 摘要: 基于出行者掌握不完全的路网信息和选择行为有限理性的假设,运用演化博弈理论建立了出行者交通选择行为模型,并基于数学归纳法的思路,从理论上证明演化方法对交通选择行为分析的适用性.经证明,2条乃至n条独立路径条件下,求得的进化稳定状态与用交通分配理论和随机效用理论所得到的均衡状态完全等价.

       

      Abstract: It is essential to know drivers' learning processes and decision rules in actual conditions so as to understand their choice behavior and traffic phenomenon. This paper assumes that the drivers are influenced by incomplete traffic information in addition to their bounded rationality. Under such assumption,this paper proceeds to construct a model of the drivers' choice behavior on the basis of the evolutionary game theory. With mathematical induction as a tool,this paper proves the suitability of evolutionary approach for the analysis of drivers' route choice behavior. It's found that for two and up to n routes,the evolutionary stable state derived from the above-mentioned approach is exactly equivalent to equilibrium derived from traffic assignment theory and stochastic utility theorem.

       

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