Evaluation of Emergency Logistics Capabilities Based on GF-AHP Combined Models——Taking the Earthquake Disaster as an Example
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摘要: 为了评价应急物流能力水平, 基于系统思想, 运用模糊层次分析法 (F-AHP) 构建含应急物流系统投入、应急物流运作管理和应急物流效率效果3个模块15个指标的应急物流能力评估体系;建立基于三角白化权函数的灰色评估模型;通过模型分析, 评价汶川、青海、芦山地震中的应急物流能力.结果表明:汶川、玉树地震中所表现出的应急物流能力属于灰类“中”, 但后者倾向于“良”, 优于前者表现出的“中差”, 芦山地震中表现为“良”;芦山地震中, 应急物流系统投入相比于运作管理优势明显, 说明在系统投入方面已得到较多支持, 而运作管理这个应急物流软能力需要加强和提升;模型结果与现实反映基本吻合, 说明灰色模糊层次分析法 (GF-AHP) 方法有效, 结果有较高可信度.
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关键词:
- 应急物流能力 /
- 评价指标体系 /
- 灰色模糊层次分析法(GF-AHP) /
- 三角白化权函数
Abstract: Based on systematic thoughts, firstly, an evaluation system of emergency logistics capabilities (ELC) was built by using F-AHP method. System inputs, operation and management as well as efficiency and effectiveness were the three modules of evaluation system, containing fifteen indicators.Secondly, gray evaluation models were developed based on Triangular Whitenization Weight Function.And then the analysis and evaluation of ELC for earthquakes in Wenchuan, Qinghai and Lushan were given respectively. The model results show that: the ELC expresses as gray class “good”in Lushan earthquake, it belongs to gray class“medium”in Wenchuan earthquake and Yushu earthquake, proning gray class“poor”in the former while tending to gray class " good" in the latter; system inputs of ELC has obvious advantages compared to operation and management in Lushan earthquake, which indicating that the system input has been more support and the operational management as ELC soft capability need to be strengthened and enhanced; model results reflect the basic agreement with reality, indicating that GFAHP method is effective and the results have higher credibility. -
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