Time-loading Model of Evacuation Traffic Demand for Large-scale Activities
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摘要: 由于大型活动应急疏散交通需求有明显的时变性特点, 需要对应急交通需求分布的时间维度精确刻画, 详细分析了场所内部疏散人员进入路网各个阶段的时间分布和场所外部人员疏散时间影响因素, 给出了改进的应急交通需求时变曲线函数.以南京奥体中心体育场蔡依林演唱会为例, 虚拟大规模爆炸威胁事件, 对体育场及其周边区域进行紧急疏散.通过TransCAD仿真分析, 预测得到疏散总量、不同交通方式比例和疏散行为反应曲线.Abstract: Traffic demand of emergency evacuation during large-scale activities appears obvious timevarying characteristic, thus time dimension of evacuation traffic demand distribution needs to be described precisely. This paper analyzes the staged time distribution of evacuation populations in stadium entering into the network, presents the influence factors to evacuation time of population outside the stadium, and provides an improved time-varying curve function of evacuation traffic demand. Take the concert of Jolin at Nanjing Olympic sports center stadium as an example, suppose that a virtual bomb threat event happens, population in and around the stadium need to be evacuated. Through simulation and analysis by TransCAD, evacuation demand, proportion of different modes of transportation and response curve of evacuation behavior can be forecasted and acquired.
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Keywords:
- large-scale activities /
- emergency evacuation /
- traffic demand /
- time-loading model
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