中国四大交通部门的碳减排潜力预测研究

    Forecasting Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of Four Major Transportation Sectors in China

    • 摘要: 交通部门是我国碳排放的主要贡献部门。通过收集2000—2020年各省市的人口、经济、交通等相关资料,结合各省市已颁布的规划政策预测了2021—2035年交通部门的活动水平,并采用排放因子法和情景分析法,估算了不同情景下东部、中部和西部地区不同交通部门的CO2排放量,并对碳减排潜力进行了对比分析。结果表明,我国交通部门在基准情景下的碳排放呈持续增长的趋势,碳减排潜力最大的是调整运输结构情景,2035年可降碳7.21亿t,在该情景下,公路部门的碳减排潜力最大,减排效果从高到低依次为东部地区、西部地区、中部地区,航空部门仅在中部地区具有减排潜力,铁路、水路部门在该情景下的减排潜力均为负值。而铁路、航空和水路部门在优化能源结构情景下更具有减排潜力,2035年将分别减排49.30%、20.53%和15.66%,在该情景下,铁路部门短期内在东部地区减排效果较好,长期在中部地区的减排潜力更大,航空部门的减排潜力在东部和西部地区更优,水路部门的减排效果在东部地区更显著。

       

      Abstract: The transportation sector is the main contributor of carbon emissions in China. The article predicts the activity level of the transportation sector from 2021 to 2035 by collecting relevant information on population, economy, and transportation in each province and city from 2000 to 2020, and forecasts the activity level of the transportation sector from 2021 to 2035 by combining with the planning policies that have been enacted in each province and city. It also adopts the emission factor method and the scenario analysis method to estimate the CO2 emissions of the different transport sectors in different scenarios for the eastern, central, and western regions, and conducts a comparative carbon emission reduction potential analyses. Results show that the carbon emissions of China's transport sector under the baseline scenario show a continuous growth trend, and the scenario with the greatest potential for carbon emission reduction is the scenario of adjusting the transport structure, which can reduce carbon by 721 million tonnes by 2035. Under this scenario, the road sector has the greatest potential for carbon emission reduction, and the emission reduction effect from high to low is the eastern region, the western region, the central region, and the aviation sector has the potential for emission reduction only in the central region, and the emission reduction potentials of the railways and the waterway sector are all negative under this scenario. The railroad, aviation and waterway sectors have more emission reduction potential under the optimization of the energy structure scenario, which will reduce emissions by 49. 30%, 20. 53% and 15. 66% respectively in 2035. Under this scenario, the railway sector has better emission reduction effects in the eastern region in the short term, and greater emission reduction potential in the central region in the long term, while the aviation sector's emission reduction potentials are better in the east and west, and the emission reduction effect of the waterway sector is more significant in the eastern region. eastern region is more significant.

       

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