复合灾害情景下城市应急避难场所优化布局研究

    Shelter Location Model under Uncertain Compound Disaster Failure Scenario

    • 摘要: 为了解决复合灾害情景下应急避难场所选址的不确定性,通过灾后避难人口预测和道路通行能力快速评估,构建了多情景地震-暴雨典型复合灾害影响场。在此基础上,考虑应急避难场所服务能力在多水准地震-暴雨复合灾害下受损概率影响,以加权服务质量期望最大为目标建立不确定失效情景下应急避难场所覆盖选址模型。以石家庄市为例,通过对应急避难场所覆盖距离、服务质量要求及服务能力等参数优化计算与讨论,验证了模型和算法的可行性。分析结果表明最小临界覆盖距离产生的影响较大,因此应注意最小临界距离的确定。

       

      Abstract: Considering the uncertainty of emergency shelter location in the compound disaster scenario, the impact field of multi scenario earthquake-rainstorm compound disaster was constructed through the prediction of refuge population and rapid assessment of road traffic capacity after the disaster. Based on this, considering the impact of the service capacity of emergency shelters on the damage probability under the compound disaster of multi-level earthquake and-rainstorm, a coverage location model of emergency shelters under uncertain failure scenarios is established with the goal of maximizing the weighted service quality expectation. Taking Shijiazhuang City as a case study, the feasibility of the model and algorithm is verified by optimizing the parameters such as the coverage distance, service quality requirements and service capacity of emergency shelters.

       

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