京津冀地区农业源温室气体减排潜力预测研究

    Study on the Prediction of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential of Agricultural Production—A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

    • 摘要: 中国农业生产需求不断增长和温室气体(greenhouse gas,GHG)排放控制目标的矛盾日益凸显,有必要更全面地识别农业部门长链条多环节的排放情况和减排潜力。为探究京津冀地区(Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,BTH)农业生产排放情况及减排潜力,本文核算了包括农业投入品、生产对象及废弃物的直接和间接排放,并基于政策选择适宜的减排措施,通过情景分析方法预测未来的排放趋势和措施采用下的减排效果。结果表明:2020年京津冀地区农业生产温室气体排放总量4 697万t当量二氧化碳,其中通过肠道排放和化肥使用排放的分别占总排放的30.2%、24.7%,唐山、石家庄、保定为最主要的排放城市,在基准情景下,2035年京津冀地区总排放量将增长19.06%,畜禽养殖将始终主导温室气体排放;农机能源利用排放占比18.6%,但在未来年将呈持续增长势头。与基准情景相比,综合情景下2035年减排量可以达到914万t,减排11.3%。不同控制措施都有一定的减排效果,最有效的3项减缓技术为堆肥添加抑制剂、饲料改进、有机肥配施氮肥减量。本研究可为农业源温室气体控制策略制定提供有价值的参考。

       

      Abstract: As the contradiction between the increasing demand for agricultural production and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission control targets in China becomes more prominent, it is necessary to identify more comprehensively the emission and reduction potentials of the agricultural sector. This study aims to estimate the present emissions of agricultural production in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTH),considering direct and indirect emissions of agricultural inputs, production objects and wastes, and to predict the future emission trends under different scenarios during 2021—2035. In addition, this research analyzed the emission reduction potential of different segments of agricultural production from different control measures. The results showed that the total GHG emissions from agricultural production in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2020 would be 46.97 million tons of CO2-eq, of which enteric methane emissions and fertilizer use will account for 30.2% and 24.7% of the total emissions, respectively. Tangshan, Shijiazhuang, and Baoding were the the top-emitted cities. In the Business-As- Usual(BAU) scenario, total emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region would increase by 19.06% in 2035, with livestock and poultry farming always dominating GHG emissions. Agricultural energy use would account for 18.6% of emissions and showed continuous growth in the coming years. Compared with the BAU scenario, the emission reduction in 2035 under the Combined Options (CO) scenario would be 9.14 million tons, a reduction of 11.3%. The three most effective mitigation technologies would be compost addition inhibitors, feed quality improvements, and organic fertilizer combined with nitrogen fertilizer. This study provides valuable insights for effective mitigation measures and control strategies for policy makers.

       

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