气候变化背景下考虑负荷不确定性的CCHP联供系统运行优化研究

    Research on Operation Optimization of CCHP System Involving Load Uncertainty Under Microclimate Condition

    • 摘要: 如何准确识别气候变化对建筑能源需求的影响,充分发挥“冷-热-电”联供系统的节能降耗和供能机制灵活等优势,制定适应气候变化的供能方案一直备受关注。在运用区域气候模式PRECIS预测上海市未来气温,并将其输入建筑能耗模拟软件TRNSYS计算某医院未来能源需求的基础上,结合医院的历史能源需求,生成考虑气候变化的能源需求正态概率分布形式;然后,将其结合到预先构建的联供系统运行优化模型中,实现了区域气候模拟、负荷预测、不确定性识别和运行优化的有效集成。最终,基于随机机会约束规划算法求解得到的系统调度方案很好地反映了系统经济性和可靠性之间的妥协,对联供系统的运行优化分析具有重要的指导意义。

       

      Abstract: How to accurately identify the impact of climate change on building's energy demand and exploit the advantages of combined cooling heating and power (CCHP) system with energy conservation, consumption reduction and flexible energy provision mechanism has received more attentions. In this research, PRECIS model was used to predict future temperature of Shanghai and predicted results were incorporated into TRNSYS software in order to calculate the energy demand in the future. Next, combined with historical energy demand, the normal probability distribution of energy demand considering climate change was developed. In addition, the effective integration of regional climate simulation, load prediction, uncertainty identification and operation optimization was innovatively achieved through incorporating uncertain user demand into pre-established operation optimization model of CCHP system. Finally, the schedule pattern based on stochastic chance constrained programming method reflects the trade-off between system economy and reliability and provides the important reference for the operation optimization of CCHP system.

       

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