考虑健康信念的游客分时预约行为分析

    Tourist's Time-sharing Behavior Analysis Considering Health Belief

    • 摘要: 为探索新冠肺炎疫情背景下景区分时预约策略、游客健康信念和风险预防行为之间的关系,需考虑健康信念,分析疫情防控期间游客分时预约行为机理。采用意愿调查法获取旅游信息、健康信念、分时预约行为意向数据,分析各预约时段余票比例和门票预售期等信息对游客分时预约行为的影响。基于Nested Logit(NL)模型,建立考虑健康信念的游客游玩日期-时段预约选择联合模型,并进行敏感性分析。结果表明:预约信息、健康信念对游客预约节假日或非节假日游玩有显著影响;票价、各预约时段余票比例和健康信念对游客游玩时段预约选择行为有显著影响。游客感知新冠的严重性由1上升至5时,选择节假日出行的概率由30.46%下降至12.28%。研究可为景区分时预约策略的制定提供参考依据。

       

      Abstract: To explore the relationship among time-sharing reservation schemes, health belief and risk prevention behavior for improving tourist flow control ability and tourists' satisfaction, the mechanism of time-sharing reservation behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic was used based on health belief. Stated preference surveys were designed and tourists' travel information demand, health belief and time-sharing reservation behavior were collected. The impact of tickets remained ratio and pre-sale period on time-sharing reservation behavior were analyzed. Based on the Nested Logit model, the joint decision model of travel date and travel period reservation behavior with the consideration of health belief was established and sensitive analysis was discussed. Results show that travel information and tourist health belief have significantly impact on tourist reservation decision of traveling on holiday or non-holiday. Tickets fare, remained ratio and tourist health belief affect reservation period decision. The sensitive analysis reveals that when tourists perceived sensitivity to COVID-19 increase from 1 to 5, the probability of choosing holiday to travel decreased from 30.46% to 12.28%. This study can provide a reference for time-sharing schemes formulating.

       

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