京津冀农业与机动车氨排放及对大气PM2.5的差异化影响

    Differential Impact of Agricultural and Vehicular Ammonia Emissions on Atmospheric PM2.5 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

    • 摘要: 农业和机动车NH3排放分别是农村和城市地区的重要NH3排放源, 开展两者环境影响的对比研究, 对于减排策略的科学制定具有重要意义。而目前缺少农业和机动车NH3排放差异化影响的研究。为此, 基于排放因子法建立了1 km分辨率的农田施肥、畜禽养殖和机动车NH3排放清单, 分析了其时空分布特征; 进一步利用WRF-CAMx-PSAT模型, 结合Brute-Force法对2017年1月和6月的农业源、机动车源减排情景进行模拟, 探究不同NH3排放源对大气PM2.5的差异化影响。研究结果显示, 2017年京津冀农田施肥、畜禽养殖、机动车NH3排放分别为31.0万、44.7万和0.8万t。从减排效果看, 当对农业NH3和机动车NH3分别进行梯度减排(10%、30%、50%、70%、100%)时, NH4+呈现出近线性变化, SO42-、NO3-呈现出非线性下降趋势。受排放量影响, 农业NH3减排情景下NH4+、SO42-、NO3-的平均浓度变化率(-16.3%、-4.3%和-37.3%)显著高于机动车NH3减排情景(-1.7%、-0.2%和-4.3%)。但从减排效率看, 则呈现相反现象。为分析减排效率, 提出并定义了NH3减排空气质量改善效率指数, 即单位(104 t)NH3减排下PM2.5浓度变化值。对比发现, 机动车NH3减排的空气质量改善效率明显高于农业NH3减排, 1月和6月分别相差1.0~3.2倍和1.2~2.3倍。研究结果可为大气污染的优化防控提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Agriculture and vehicles are important ammonia emissions sources in rural and urban areas, respectively. A comparative study of their environmental impacts is of great significance for the scientific formulation of emission reduction strategies. However, there is currently a lack of research on the differential impacts of agricultural and vehicular NH3 emissions. This study established a NH3 emission inventory with 1 km resolution for fertilizer, livestock and vehicles based on the emission factor method, and analyzed their spatial and temporal distribution characteristics. Further, WRF-CAMx-PSAT, combined with Brute-Force method was used to simulate the emission reduction scenarios of agricultural and vehicular NH3 in January and June 2017 to investigate the differential effects of different NH3 emission sources on atmospheric PM2.5. Results show that the ammonia emissions from fertilizer, livestock and vehicles in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei were 31.0×104 t, 44.7×104 t, and 0.8×104 t, respectively, in 2017. From the perspective of emission reduction effect, when agricultural and vehicular NH3 emission was gradient reduced by 10%, 30%, 50%, 70%, and 100%, respectively, NH4+ showed a nearly linear change, however, SO42- and NO3- showed a non-linear decreasing trend. Influenced by emissions, the average change rates (-16.3%, -4.3%, and -37.3%) of NH4+, SO42-, and NO3- concentrations under the agricultural NH3 reduction scenarios were significantly higher than those (-1.7%, -0.2%, and -4.3%) under the vehicular NH3 reduction scenarios. However, from the perspective of emission reduction efficiency, the opposite phenomenon was found. To analyze the emission reduction efficiency, the NH3 emission reduction air quality improvement efficiency index was proposed and defined as the change in PM2.5 concentration under the unit (104 tons) of NH3 emission reduction. By comparison, it is found that the air quality improvement efficiency of vehicular NH3 emission reduction was significantly higher than that of agricultural NH3 emission reduction, with a difference of 1.0-3.2 times and 1.2-2.3 times in January and June, respectively. The results of the study can provide scientific basis for the optimal prevention and control of air pollution.

       

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