Abstract: According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) statistics, the construction industry is one of the main sources of greenhouse gases emissions, accounting for about 32%. The carbon emissions of buildings in the operation stage accounts for 60%-80% of the whole life cycle. According to previous research, the carbon emissions in Beijing are far higher than those in most other cities in China, but there are still some deficiencies in the research on the carbon emissions of the operation of buildings in Beijing. First, based on the traditional emission coefficient method, the operation calculation model of carbon emissions in the operation of buildings in Beijing was established in time series, and the direct and indirect carbon emission factors of Beijing were modified. By simulating and analyzing the carbon emissions data in the operation of buildings in Beijing from 2005 to 2019, the carbon emission of operation inventory was compiled based on the energy method of different industries. Second, Kaya identity and LMDI models were used to analyze the contribution of various driving factors of carbon emissions, and three scenarios, i.e., high carbon, medium carbon and low carbon were used to predict the changes of carbon emissions in the operation of buildings in Beijing. Results show that the heat and electricity carbon emission factors in Beijing decrease year by year. The carbon emissions in the operation of buildings reaches the highest value in 2012, indicating it has met the goal of peak. The overall carbon emissions demonstrates a trend of decrease in the future. The research results provides a scientific basis for the prediction of the carbon emissions in the operation of buildings in Beijing.