基于CEEMD_GRU模型的矿井涌水量预测

    Prediction of Mine Water Inflow Based on CEEMD_GRU Model

    • 摘要: 为了提高矿井涌水量的预测精度,提出基于互补集合经验模态分解(complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition,CEEMD)与门控循环单元(gated recurrent unit,GRU)相结合的矿井涌水量预测模型(CEEMD_GRU).首先,通过CEEMD算法将一维涌水量数据分解为多个本征模态函数(intrinsic mode function,IMF)分量和一个残差余量,本征模态函数分量反映涌水量数据在不同时间尺度的波动特征,残差余量反映数据长期变化的趋势特征;然后,针对各分量分别建立GRU神经网络模型,将对一维数据的研究转换为对其分解后多维子分量的研究,训练学习各分量的时序变化规律并进行预测;最后,将预测结果融合得到最终涌水量预测值.将CEEMD_GRU与反向传播(back propagation,BP)、支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)、GRU神经网络进行了对比实验,结果表明,基于CEEMD_GRU的均方根误差平均降低了60.8%,该研究为进一步提高矿井涌水量预测精度提供了思路.

       

      Abstract: To improve the prediction accuracy of mine water inflow, a mine inflow prediction model (CEEMD_GRU) based on the combination of complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) neural network. First, the one-dimensional water inflow data was decomposed into several intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and a residual margin by CEEMD algorithm. The fluctuation characteristics of the water inflow data at different time scales were reflected by the intrinsic mode components while the trend characteristics of long-term changes of the data was reflected by the residual margin. Then, the GRU neural network model was established for each component, and the study of one-dimensional data was transformed into the study of the decomposed multidimensional sub-components so as to train and learn the time-series change rules of each component and make predictions. Finally, the predicted water inflow was obtained by combining the predicted results. By comparing CEEMD_GRU with back propagation (BP), SVM and GRU neural network, the results show that the RMSE based on CEEMD_GRU prediction model is reduced by 60.8% on average. This study provides a new idea for further improving the prediction accuracy of mine water inflow.

       

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