基于极值理论的核电站随机地震响应可靠性分析

    Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants Under Random Earthquake Based on Extreme Value Theory

    • 摘要: 为求解核电站在随机地震动激励下的动力可靠度,发展了基于线性矩确定最大反应极值分布的动力可靠度分析方法.首先,根据目标反应谱生成相应的地震动时程样本,结合核电结构有限元模型,采用基于时域显式方法进行随机振动分析得到节点位移响应时程样本;然后,统计各位移响应时程样本的最大值,确定最大响应的前三阶线性矩;进而,根据线性矩匹配识别最大反应极值分布——三参数广义极值分布的参数;最后,根据所确定的最大反应极值分布,估计结构响应在不同阈值下的可靠度.计算结果表明:当核电站在地震加速度峰值为0.3 g时,以轻微破坏为界,结构有良好的可靠性;以中等破坏为界,结构仍具有一定的可靠度.通过核电站动力可靠度分析表明:该方法与蒙特卡洛方法相比,在保证计算精度的情况下,大幅缩减了所须的最小样本量,提高了模拟尾部的计算效率,同时对于其他结构的动力可靠度求解也具有广泛的适用性.

       

      Abstract: To solve the problem of dynamic reliability of nuclear power plants under random ground motion excitation, a dynamic reliability analysis method was developed, with the extreme value distribution of the maximum response evaluated based on linear moments(L-moment). First, according to the target response spectrum, the corresponding time-history of ground motion samples were generated. Combined with the nuclear power structure finite element model, the time-domain explicit method was used in the random vibration analysis to obtain the node displacement response time-history sample. Then, the maximum displacement response time-history samples were estimated to determine the first three L-moment of the maximum response, and the three-parameter of maximum response distribution was determined according to the L-moment matching. Finally, based on the maximum response distribution, the reliability under different thresholds was estimated. Results show that when the peak value of seismic acceleration is 0.3 g, the containment structure has good reliability with slight damage as the boundary, and still has certain reliability with medium damage. The dynamic reliability analysis of the nuclear power plant shows that compared with the Monte Carlo method, this method greatly reduces the minimum sample size and improves the computational efficiency of the simulated tail while ensuring the calculation accuracy. At the same time, it has wide applicability for solving the problem of dynamic reliability of other structures.

       

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