集值和区间值的多元时间序列

    Set-valued and Interval-valued Multivariate Time Series

    • 摘要: 研究集值多元时间序列的一些初步的理论,这为拓广经典的多元时间序列模型提供了理论基础.首先,基于集值理论,进一步提出集值向量、集值随机向量的定义,并给出集值随机向量的期望向量、交叉协方差阵与交叉相关阵的定义与性质.然后,在此基础上,给出集值多元时间序列的定义,并研究关于集值多元时间序列的平稳性,期望向量、交叉协方差阵和交叉相关阵的定义及性质,讨论平稳的集值多元时间序列的最优线性预测问题.最后,在集值多元时间序列的基础之上,讨论区间值多元时间序列,并建立区间值多元自回归模型.模拟研究与实证分析验证了该模型与所提出方法的合理性.

       

      Abstract: Some preliminaries for set-valued multivariate time series were studied, which provides a theoretical basis for extending the classical multivariate time series models. First, this paper introduced the definitions of set-valued vectors and set-valued random vectors based on the set-valued random variable theory. The definitions of expectation vectors, cross covariance matrixes and cross correlation matrixes were also given in this paper. Then, the set-valued multivariate time series was defined and the stationary property, expectation vectors, cross covariance matrixes and cross correlation matrixes of set-valued multivariate time series were discussed. Furthermore, the optimal linear forecast of stationary set-valued multivariate time series was studied. Finally, the interval-valued multivariate time series were discussed based on set-valued multivariate time series, and the interval-valued vector autoregressive model was built. Simulation study and real data analysis show the efficiency of the proposed model and approach.

       

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