基于改进LSTM网络的犯罪态势预测方法

    Improved LSTM-based Approach for Forecasting Crimes

    • 摘要: 为了利用历史数据对犯罪态势进行更加准确的预测,提出一种基于改进长短期记忆(long short-term memory,LSTM)网络的犯罪态势预测方法.首先统计某区域在每一个时间步长内发生犯罪事件的数量,作为一个时间步长值,再由多个时间步长组成一个时间序列,结合均方差滤波对统计的序列数据做标准化处理.其次建立包括输入层、隐藏层、全连接层和输出层的LSTM网络,在训练阶段将以上一段时间步长的预测值作为输入改为以实际值作为输入,根据修正的网络参数循环进行后续的预测,再对网络输出进行标准化逆处理得到预测结果.将2016年美国洛杉矶地区统计的全部犯罪记录作为实验数据,得到了态势拟合度较高的实验结果,与改进前相比,预测结果的均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)从139.65降低到了85.88,验证了基于改进LSTM网络对犯罪态势预测的有效性和准确性,并且通过与其他现有方法的对比,进一步证明了本方法在时间性能和准确性上的优越性.

       

      Abstract: This paper aims at implementing a more accurate forecast of crime trend based on historical data. Taking advantage of the special property of recursive structure of recurrent neural network that can transfer the characteristics of the previous period to the current period, a method for forecasting crime situation was proposed based on improved LSTM network. First, the number of crime events within each time unit was counted as the value of a time node and multiple time nodes would form a time series. The time series were standardized through a mean square variance filter to access the training data of the network. Then, the proposed LSTM network was constructed that included the input layer, the hidden layer, the fully connected layer and the output layer. At the training stage, prediction of the last time unit was improved by relying on the actual values rather than on the forecast values. Data consisting of the criminal records of the Los Angeles area in 2016 was used in the experiments. Compared to the traditional method, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the predicting results dropped from 139.65 to 85.88 using the proposed method, which demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method by showing better prediction of the trend. Additionally, it shows that this method is superior to other existing methods in terms of both time performance and accuracy.

       

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