阻断事件影响下城际出行行为

    Intercity Travel Behavior Under the Influence of Blocking Events

    • 摘要: 为揭示异常情况下居民城际出行决策的关键影响因素和规律,根据阻断事件级别、绕行路线增加时间量、出行类型(弹性、刚性)设计了16种出行场景,进行居民出行方式选择意向问卷调查.问卷涉及影响居民出行决策的11个因素和4个决策选项.基于多分类Logistic回归模型,分别利用城际出行中的16种异常场景下的意向(stated preference,SP)调查数据,构建居民出行决策模型.结果表明:阻断事件影响程度、绕行路程、出行目的不同,影响居民决策的显著性因素不同,并且同一因素在不同场景下的影响程度存在差异;出行时耗和居民对某种出行方式的偏好对各场景下的决策影响最为显著,其次为出行频率和职业,驾龄、年龄、性别在个别场景下具有显著性影响.这些结果可以为综合交通运输网络中公路阻断事件下的居民出行行为预测提供依据,并且在异常情况下为不同出行个体提供个性化、精细化的出行信息服务提供支撑.

       

      Abstract: To reveal the key influencing factors and rules of intercity travel decisions under abnormal circumstances, 16 kinds of travel scenarios were designed for stated preference (SP) survey according to the level of blocking events, the amount of time of bypassing the route, and the type of travel (elasticity trip and rigidity trip). The questionnaire included 11 factors affecting residents' travel decisions and 4 decision options. Based on the multinomial logistic regression, travel decision models were built by using the SP Data of 16 abnormal scenes in intercity travel. Results show that the significant factors affecting residents' decision-making are different from the extent of the interruption of the events, the distance of the bypass, and different purposes of the trip. Moreover, there is a difference in the degree of influence for the same factor in different scenes. Among them, the travel time consumption and residents' preference for a certain travel mode are the most significant factors followed by the trip frequency and occupation under different travel scenarios. Nevertheless, driving age, age and gender have significant effects under individual scenarios. These results can be used to predict the travel behavior of the residents under the road blocking event in the integrated transportation network. It can also provide support for personalized and refined travel information service to different travel individuals in abnormal circumstances.

       

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