轨道交通断面流仿真预测系统中需求生成

    Demand Generation for Simulation-based Section Flow Prediction System in Urban Rail Transit

    • 摘要: 针对断面流仿真预测系统中输入起讫点(origin-destination,OD)矩阵的时间跨度与需求生成时间粒度不一致问题,结合进站量短时预测构建需求生成组合策略,将OD矩阵时间跨度离散化为等长子时段,基于自动售检票机实时传输的统计客流量预测短时进站量,确定子时段内需求分配比例,从而使需求生成过程沿着子时段客流波动轨迹变化.以北京市轨道交通某站为例进行实证分析,结果表明:对比既有单一时段内基于泊松分布的需求生成,所构建的需求生成策略与实际客流到达规律吻合度提高了约22.89%;对比多种进站量短时预测模型,认为卡尔曼滤波模型能够满足在线预测的时效与精度需求.

       

      Abstract: Due to the inconsistency between the time range of input origin-destination (OD) matrix and the time interval for generating travel demand in the real-time simulation-based forecast system, a combined strategy integrated with the station inflow prediction was proposed. The time span corresponding to the OD matrix was discretized into the equal-length sub-periods, and the short-term station inflow was predicted by using the data from automatic fare collection system. Then the flow ratio in each sub-period was gained which made the demand generation process follow the real passenger arrival distribution. A station of Beijing metro was applied to verify the method. Compared to the normal generation approach, the relative error of the proposed strategy can be reduced by 22.89%. Compared with various short-term prediction models, it demonstrates that the Kalman filter model can meet the requirements of time and accuracy for on-line predictions.

       

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