基于极值分布的常态下高速公路行程时间可靠性模型

    Expressway Travel Time Reliability Model Without Incident Based on the Extreme Value Distribution

    • 摘要: 为了利用参考模型表征路段行程时间分布,运用海量高速公路收费数据,分析了路段行程时间概率分布特征,通过极值分布、对数正态分布、正态分布和威伯尔分布对路段行程时间的概率密度函数进行曲线拟合. 建立了基于极值分布的路段行程时间可靠性模型和模型参数估计方法,考虑了车型速度差和出行者易于理解的因素,提出了一种高速公路可靠性指标阈值的计算方法. 选取最大概率行程时间、平均延误时间和行程时间可靠性为评价指标,对陕西省高速公路网中某一路段24h出发车辆的行程时间进行实例评价. 结果表明:极值分布的误差平方和(SSE)最小,拟合优度( R 2)最接近于1,利用极值分布表征路段行程时间分布效果最佳.

       

      Abstract: Massive historical data of the expressway toll was collected and fitted by several distributions, including extreme value, log-normal, normal and Weibull. Travel time reliability model was established based on the extreme value distribution, and a parameter estimation method was provided. To be understood by travelers easily, the threshold was also built considering the difference between cars and trucks. Three indexes were selected as the evaluation index, including the maximum probability travel time, the average delay time and travel time reliability. The proposed model was validated by the case study of Shaanxi. Based on the principles of the less error sum squares (SSE) and the higher determination coefficient ( R 2), the results show that it is rational and acceptable to describe the travel time with the extreme value distribution.

       

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