Abstract: A health insurance actuarial model is built to analyze the urban basic medical insurance fund in China.Based on Chinese population structure data,especially Chinese population aging data,this paper forecasts the balance situation of Chinese urban basic medical insurance fund in the next 3 decades.It can be clearly seen that,under the current policies,our urban basic medical insurance pooling account would not make both ends meet in the long run.From an analysis of current contribution rate,in order to make ends meet,both individual and enterprise contribution rates should increase to a relative high level,8.93%and 26.8%in 2040 respectively.The conclusions indicate that it is high time that a more efficient strategy be proposed to improve the fund's balance under the problem of population aging.