我国政府支出对经济增长的动态效应研究
The Research on the Dynamic Effect of the Government Expenditure on the Economic Growth in China
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摘要: 视财政支出为经济增长的一个“要素”变量,在新古典经济增长理论的基础上构建包含政府支出的内生化经济增长模型,揭示了经济处于稳定均衡时政府支出对经济增长的长期动态效应,同时通过构建状态空间模型和卡尔曼滤波的分析方法量化该动态效应值。研究结果表明,从1990—2011年该值呈拟倒V型特征,即从1990年开始增加并在1998年达到峰值0.84,其后该值一直处于下降态势。因此,提高政府支出的效率和优化政府支出的结构有助于提高政府支出对经济增长的动态效应。Abstract: This paper regards the fiscal expenditure as a factor variable of the economic growth and deals with the long-time and dynamic effect of the fiscal expenditure exerting on the economic growth when economy is in stable equilibrium,based on the endogenous economic growth model including fiscal expenditure,which is derived from neoclassical economic growth theory and analyzes the dynamic effect value trough state space model and kalman filtering at the same time.The research results reveal that the value takes on inverted V-shape characteristics by and large from the year 1990 to 2010,reaching the peak in 1998.Therefore;to improve the efficiency and optimize the structure of the government expenditure is helpful to enhance the dynamic effect.