4万亿经济激励计划背后的经济学问题

    Economic Problems Behind the Four Thousand Trillion Economic Stimulate Package

    • 摘要: 凯恩斯的宏观经济理论既不涉及现实的政治维度,也不关注微观经济层面的资源配置效率问题,这样的理论应用于现实的结果很可能是弊大于利。作为应用凯恩斯理论的总需求管理思想的产物,中国4万亿的经济刺激计划在政治层面难以避免寻租和腐败、政治权力固化等同题,在经济层面有可能导致资源配置的扭曲。虽然政府出台了各种监管措施以预防这种可能出现的弊病,但经验和理论都告诉我们这些措施的有效性是有限的。

       

      Abstract: Keynesian macroeconomic theory is not concerned with the political dimension of aggregate demand management,nor does it take into consideration of the allocation efficiency on the microeconomic level.Such kind of theory when applied to reality might well lead to results that are overall harmful.As the product of such theory,China's four thousand trillion economic stimulate package would result in rent-seeking,corruption and entrenched bureaucratic power politically,and distorted resource allocation economically.While some measures have been taken by central government to pre-stall these distortions,their effectiveness in reality is still in doubt judging from both past experiences and relevant theory.

       

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