基于组合预测的风险值研究

    Study on Value-at-risk Based on Forecast Combination

    • 摘要: 针对准确地预测一个金融资产的风险值具有一定困难的问题,从风险值的特点出发,探讨了使用组合预测方法来预测风险值的意义以及确定组合预测权重和单个模型选取的方法。结论是用组合预测方法能提高风险值的预测表现;影响预测表现的关键因素是权重和单个模型的选取。

       

      Abstract: Value-at-risk currently has become the benchmark of measuring financial market risk,but normally it is difficult to accurately estimate the value-at-risk of one financial asset. Forecast combination is one way of solving the problem.In this paper,we discuss the meaning of asing forecast combination to forecast value-at-risk,and present the methods of obtaining the weights and of deciding the suitable individual forecast models included in the forecast combination.We draw the conclusion that forecast combination is able to improve the forecast performance of value-at-risk and that selection of weight and individual forecast models is the key factor of influencing forecast performance.

       

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