我国机构投资对股票市场波动影响研究——基于投资者情绪视角
Research on the Stock Market Volatility Influenced by Institutional Investor in China: Based on Investor Sentiment
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摘要: 证券投资基金是我国股票市场最重要的机构投资者,其投资行为对股票市场的影响最大。为验证基金投资行为与股市波动的关系,以基金指数变化代表投资者情绪波动,利用GARCH(1,1)及EGARCH(1,1)模型实证检验其投资行为对我国股市波动的时变性及杠杆效应,并从行为金融学角度就其投资行为对股市波动作用机理予以分析。分析结果表明:不同投资者情绪波动下其投资行为会对股市波动产生不同程度的影响。由于投资者过度自信心理的存在,当投资者情绪高涨时,其投资行为加剧股市波动作用更为显著;而投资者情绪下降时,股市虽有波动,但负向杠杆效应不如情绪高涨时正向杠杆效应明显。Abstract: As the most important institutional investor, securities investment fund plays a vital role for the stability of the. In order to study the relation between the behavior of institutional investor and stock market, with the fund index behalf of investor sentiment, researching the time variant and deleveraging effects of institutional investor on stock market volatility by GARCH(1,1)and EGARCH(1,1) models, and analyses the conclusion based on behavioral finance. The results show that the behavior of institutional investor makes different effect on the stock market when their sentiment different. Because of the over confidence, the effect of institutional investor on stock market appears more obvious when the sentiment of institutional investor up. However, when the sentiment down,the negative effect on the stock market is less obvious than the positive effect although the stock market still fluctuates.