人工智能与实体经济深度融合对企业就业变动的影响及作用机制

    The Impact and Mechanism of the Deep Integration of Artificial Intelligence with the Real Economy on Employment Changes in Enterprises

    • 摘要: 在当前“稳就业”这一重大现实命题背景下,人工智能技术的广泛应用不可避免地对劳动力市场带来深刻影响,如何有效应对其所引发的结构性冲击,成为推动中国实现高质量发展的关键。基于此,以中国专利申请数据库为基础,测度人工智能与实体经济的深度融合水平,并结合2010—2023年A股上市公司数据,构建双向固定效应模型,系统考察人工智能与实体经济深度融合对企业就业变动的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,人工智能与实体经济深度融合能显著提升企业就业净增长率,该结论在一系列稳健性检验下依然成立。机制检验表明,创造效应、规模效应与替代效应构成了人工智能推动企业就业变动的重要路径。异质性分析显示,人工智能与实体经济深度融合对就业的促进作用在非国有企业、非高新技术企业、行业集中度较低、数字基础设施建设较为完善、营商环境较优地区的企业中更为显著。拓展性分析进一步表明,人工智能与实体经济融合所引致的企业就业变动效应,显著扩大了企业内部的薪酬差距。同时,实体经济产业内部的融合对就业的带动作用,明显强于人工智能产业内部融合所产生的效果。

       

      Abstract: Against the backdrop of the current major practical issue of "stabilizing employment", the wide application of artificial intelligence (AI) technology inevitably has a profound impact on the labor market. How to effectively address the structural shocks it brings has become a key issue for promoting China's high-quality development. Based on this, this paper uses the China Patent Application Database as the foundation to measure the deep integration level of AI with the real economy. Combined with the data of A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2023, a two-way fixed effect model is constructed to systematically examine the impact of the deep integration of AI with the real economy on employment changes in enterprises and its mechanism. The research findings are as follows: First, the deep integration of AI with the real economy significantly promotes the net growth rate of employment in enterprises, and this conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. Second, the mechanism test shows that the creation effect, scale effect, and substitution effect constitute the important internal paths through which AI drives employment changes in enterprises. Third, the heterogeneity analysis indicates that the promoting effect of the deep integration of AI with the real economy on employment is more significant in non-state-owned enterprises, non-high-tech enterprises, enterprises in industries with lower concentration, regions with more complete digital infrastructure, and better business environments. Fourth, the extended analysis further shows that the employment change effect caused by the integration of AI and the real economy significantly widens the internal salary gap within enterprises. Meanwhile, the driving effect of internal integration within the real economy industry on employment is significantly stronger than that of internal integration within the AI industry.

       

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