中国式现代化发展大趋势——基于地区人均GDP变迁视角(2001—2035年)

    Development Trends of Chinese-Style Modernization: A Perspective from Changes of Regional Per Capita GDP (2001—2035)

    • 摘要: 地区发展不平衡性始终是中国国情基本特征之一。中国是世界上自然地理、人口资源、经济社会差异最大的国家之一。进入21世纪,按购买力平价(PPP)人均GDP(2021年国际元)计算,全国31个省区市经济发展水平及格局发生重大变化:从2001年的“一个中国、四个世界(低收入、下中等收入、上中等收入、高收入)”,到2010年为“一个中国、三个世界(下中等收入、上中等收入、高收入)”,再到2024年为“一个中国、两个世界(上中等收入、高收入)”。预计到2030年基本上是“一个中国、一个世界”,即均达到高收入水平。预计到2035年,全国31个省区市人均GDP均达到OECD国家底线以上,成为世界最大人口规模的中等发达国家,如期基本实现社会主义现代化。

       

      Abstract: Regional disparities in development have long been a defining feature of China's national reality. As one of the countries with the widest variations in physical geography, demographic resources and socioeconomic conditions, China has seen profound shifts in the economic landscape of its 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities since the start of the 21st century. Measured in 2021 international dollars at purchasing-power-parity (PPP), provincial per capita GDP moved from "one China, four worlds" in 2001 (low-income, lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income and high-income) to "one China, three worlds" in 2010 (lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income and high-income), and further to "one China, two worlds" in 2024 (upper-middle-income and high-income). Projections suggest that by 2030 China will approach "one China, one world, " with every region entering the high-income bracket; by 2035, per capita GDP in all 31 jurisdictions is expected to surpass the OECD's lower high-income threshold, making China the world's most populous moderately developed country and enabling it to basically realize her socialist modernization on schedule.

       

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