人工智能发展前沿与就业

    Frontier Developments in Artificial Intelligence and Employment

    • 摘要: 在新一轮科技革命与产业变革中,人工智能发展迅猛,通用大模型快速迭代,垂直大模型在教育、医疗、交通等领域百花齐放,具身智能异军突起,推动机器人多模态感知与自动化应用大幅提升。在人工智能的不同发展阶段,其替代效应、创造效应和增长效应对就业的影响各不相同,其中占主导地位的效应会随阶段变化而对就业产生不同的总体影响。应辩证看待替代效应,其作用取决于人工智能与人类劳动力的成本比较,以及具体的社会制度。当前,中国面临人口老龄化、少子化的结构性挑战,无疑为人工智能的发展带来重大的机遇。应全面理解创造效应的三个层次,同时重视人工智能的增长效应。为此,需要发挥制度与国家治理优势,更好统筹人工智能与就业,着力完善人才培养和职业培训体系,前瞻性建立社会保障缓冲机制,同时推动数字与实体经济深度融合,挖掘新经济增长点,提升生产效率,使广大劳动者共享人工智能发展成果。

       

      Abstract: In the current wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation, the development of artificial intelligence (AI) has accelerated significantly. General large models are rapidly iterating, and vertical large models are flourishing in various sectors such as education, healthcare, and transportation. Embodied intelligence has emerged prominently, significantly enhancing robotic multi-model perception and automation applications. At different stages of AI development, the substitution effect, creative effect, and growth effect have varying impacts on employment. The dominant effect changes with each stage, thereby differently influencing overall employment outcomes. The substitution effect should be dialectically viewed; its impact depends on the cost comparison between AI and human labor, as well as specific social institutions. Currently, China faces structural challenges such as an aging population and a declining birth rate, making AI development a significant opportunity. A comprehensive understanding of the three levels of the creative effect is essential, as is the importance of AI's growth effect. Consequently, it is necessary to leverage institutional and national governance advantages to better coordinate AI development with employment, focusing on improving talent development and vocational training systems. Proactively establishing social security buffer mechanisms, promoting the deep integration of digital and physical economies, exploring new economic growth points, and enhancing productivity, are crucial to enabling workers to share the benefits of AI development.

       

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