Abstract:
In the current wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation, the development of artificial intelligence (AI) has accelerated significantly. General large models are rapidly iterating, and vertical large models are flourishing in various sectors such as education, healthcare, and transportation. Embodied intelligence has emerged prominently, significantly enhancing robotic multi-model perception and automation applications. At different stages of AI development, the substitution effect, creative effect, and growth effect have varying impacts on employment. The dominant effect changes with each stage, thereby differently influencing overall employment outcomes. The substitution effect should be dialectically viewed; its impact depends on the cost comparison between AI and human labor, as well as specific social institutions. Currently, China faces structural challenges such as an aging population and a declining birth rate, making AI development a significant opportunity. A comprehensive understanding of the three levels of the creative effect is essential, as is the importance of AI's growth effect. Consequently, it is necessary to leverage institutional and national governance advantages to better coordinate AI development with employment, focusing on improving talent development and vocational training systems. Proactively establishing social security buffer mechanisms, promoting the deep integration of digital and physical economies, exploring new economic growth points, and enhancing productivity, are crucial to enabling workers to share the benefits of AI development.