数字基础设施建设与增值税横向分配——基于数字生产和消费的双重视角

    Digital Infrastructure Construction and Horizontal Distribution of Value-Added Tax——A Dual Perspective Based on Digital Production and Consumption

    • 摘要: 在数字经济背景下,税收税源背离现象在增值税生产地原则下产生的问题进一步放大。将数字基础设施建设纳入税收分配的分析框架内,采用地级市面板数据分析数字基础设施建设对区域增值税税收横向分配的内在机制和效应。实证结果发现:第一,数字基础设施建设通过数字创新和数字消费两种途径影响地区增值税相对税收,数字创新对增值税横向分配的影响为正,数字消费对其的影响为负。第二,总效应的测算结果显示,数字基础设施建设对增值税相对收入的总影响为负,即其提升数字创新带来的人均增值税收入的增加小于提升数字消费带来的税收损失,这使得地方政府很难依靠投资基建的传统方式实现数字经济下的横向税收增长。第三,异质性检验表明,数字基础设施建设对于增值税相对收入的影响在东部和中西部地区之间存在差异,在市场化程度较低、人口流出地区的负面影响更大。第四,调节效应的分析结果表明,城市化率较低地区的数字基础设施建设能够显著促进数字创新,并较少增加数字消费,提升该地区的增值税相对收入,而在城市化较高地区则更多促进了数字消费,降低了增值税相对收入,进而缓解了税收横向分配的不平等。考虑到我国总体城市化水平已经超过65%且仍在不断提升,当前数字基础设施建设已经很难缓解数字经济发达地区与不发达地区的税收分配失衡。因此,现有增值税体系不利于部分地方扩大数字基建,有必要建立同数字经济相适应的税收制度,减缓数字经济带来的税收分配失衡,采取相应激励举措支持地方政府建设数字基础设施和发展数字经济。

       

      Abstract: In the context of the digital economy, the problem of tax source deviation, especially under the principle of value-added tax production location, is further amplified. This article incorporates digital infrastructure construction into the analysis framework of tax distribution, and uses panel data from prefecture level cities to examine the internal mechanism and effect of digital infrastructure construction on the horizontal distribution of regional value-added tax revenue. Firstly, empirical research has found that digital infrastructure has a negative impact on the horizontal distribution of value-added tax, mainly affecting the relative tax revenue of regional value-added tax through two channels: digital innovation and digital consumption. Secondly, the calculation results of the total effect show that the construction of digital infrastructure has a negative impact on the relative income of value-added tax, that is, the increase in per capita value-added tax income brought about by increasing digital innovation is less than the tax loss brought about by increasing digital consumption. This makes it difficult for local governments to rely on traditional investment in infrastructure to achieve tax growth in the digital economy. Thirdly, heterogeneity testing indicates that the impact of digital infrastructure on the horizontal distribution of value-added tax varies between the eastern and central western regions, with a greater negative impact in areas with lower levels of marketization and population outflow. Fourthly, the analysis of regulatory effects shows that the construction of digital infrastructure in areas with lower urbanization rates can significantly promote digital innovation while slightly increasing digital consumption, resulting in an increase in the relative income of value-added tax in the region and alleviating the imbalance in horizontal tax distribution. However, considering that the overall level of urbanization in China has exceeded 60% and is still continuously improving, the construction of digital infrastructure is no longer able to alleviate the tax imbalance in developed and relatively underdeveloped areas of the digital economy. Therefore, the existing value-added tax system is not conducive to expanding digital infrastructure in some places. It is necessary to slow down the tax distribution imbalance caused by the digital economy through tax system reform and fiscal system reform, and take corresponding incentive measures to support local governments in developing digital infrastructure and digital economy.

       

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