“双碳”目标下绿色财政政策的碳生产率效应研究

    Research on the Carbon Productivity Effect of Green Fiscal Policies Under the “Dual-Carbon” Goals

    • 摘要: 在“双碳”目标下,提高城市碳生产率是政府制定绿色财政政策推动城市低碳发展的重要考量。以两部委开展的节能减排财政政策试点为准实验,使用多期双重差分(DID)模型和塔皮奥(Tapio)脱钩指数模型,考察绿色财政政策对城市低碳发展的影响。研究显示,绿色财政政策的实施有效提升了城市碳生产率,并推动了城市低碳发展。具体而言,实施该绿色财政政策能够通过优化城市产业结构和生产要素配置、改善城市创新环境、提高城市科技创新能力等提升城市碳生产率。同时,在非资源型、非工业型、环境信息公开和地方政府环保意识强的城市中,政策效应更显著。拓展研究发现,除铁岭市和铜川市外,其他试点城市在政策实施期间经济增长速率均高于碳排放增长速率,表现出明显的碳生产率提升趋势。绿色财政政策在推动城市减碳、促增长、提升碳生产率方面发挥着重要作用,城市低碳发展应以绿色财政为抓手制定因应之策,以实现经济发展和减污降碳双重目标。

       

      Abstract: Under the "Dual-Carbon" goals, enhancing urban carbon productivity is a key consid-eration in the government's formulation of green fiscal policies aimed at promoting urban low-carbon development. This paper takes the pilot energy conservation and emission reduction financial policy carried out by the two ministries and commissions as a quasi-natural experiment, and uses a multi-period DID model and the Tapio decoupling index model to study the impact of green fiscal policy on urban low-carbon development. The research results show that the imple-mentation of the green fiscal policy has effectively improved the city's carbon productivity and promoted low-carbon urban development. Mechanism analysis shows that the implementation of the green fiscal policy can improve urban carbon productivity by optimising the urban industrial structure and the allocation of production factors, improving the urban innovation environment, and enhancing the urban scientific and technological innovation capabilities. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy effect is more significant in cities that are non-resource-based, non-industrial, disclose environmental information, and have local governments that are highly environmentally conscious. The extended research finds that, during the policy implementation period, the economic growth rate in other pilot cities, excluding Tieling and Tongchuan, outpaced the growth rate of carbon emissions, demonstrating a clear trend of improved carbon productivity. Green fiscal policy plays an important role in promoting carbon reduction, growth, and carbon productivity of cities. Urban low-carbon development should focus on green finance by formulating policies to achieve the dual goals of economic development and carbon emissions reduction and related pollution control.

       

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