碳中和目标驱动下多能互补体系政策协同机理与实现路径

    Mechanism and Realization Path of Policy Synergy in Multi-energy Complementary System Driven by Carbon Neutrality Goal

    • 摘要: 将政策协同与电力生产企业、典型用能企业节能降碳行为发生联系,从碳市场仅覆盖电力行业、全体用能行业两种视角,构建“政府部门-电力生产厂商-典型用能企业”三方主体的动态博弈模型,揭示碳中和目标下碳市场与可再生能源电价补贴、绿证市场协同实施的降碳成本、运行效率与演化路径。研究发现,碳市场仅覆盖电力行业情形下,政府部门、电力生产厂商、典型用能企业三方主体博弈中,电力生产企业可达到综合能源发电的均衡解,而典型用能企业的均衡解为消极减排,减碳成本低、存在行业间“碳泄露”;当碳市场扩展至所有用能行业后,三方主体存在促进多能互补体系发展的理想演化稳定策略均衡解(碳市场和绿证市场,综合能源发电,积极减排),碳减排成本高、但减碳效果好,其中政府部门策略选择稳定不变、其他两方主体策略选择则受到参数稳定性条件影响。基于经济增长的工业化能源需求和分阶段实现碳达峰碳中和目标要求,提出碳中和目标驱动下“三步走”政策协同发展路径,推进多能互补体系高效运行,建设以可再生能源为主、多种能源互补发展的新型电力体系,建立以政府为主导、电力生产厂商进行综合能源发电和典型用能企业积极减排的高效协同机制。

       

      Abstract: In order to build a new power system with renewable energy as the main source and complementary development of various energy sources, it is urgent to establish an efficient collaborative mechanism for government-led, comprehensive energy generation by power producers and active emission reduction by typical energy-using enterprises under the drive of carbon neutrality. By connecting policy coordination with energy saving and carbon reduction behaviors of micro entities of power production enterprises and typical energy-using enterprises, a dynamic game model of "government departments-power producers-typical energy-using enterprises" is constructed from two perspectives: carbon market covers only the power industry and the entire energy-using industry. The research reveals the carbon cost reduction, operation efficiency and evolution path of carbon market, renewable energy price subsidy and green certificate market under the goal of carbon neutrality. The study finds that under the condition that carbon market only covers the power industry, power producers can achieve the equilibrium solution of comprehensive energy power generation, while the equilibrium solution of typical energy-using enterprises is negative emission reduction, with low carbon reduction cost and inter-industry " carbon leakage " . After the carbon market is expanded to all energy-using industries, there is an ideal evolutionary stable strategy equilibrium solution of promoting the development of multi-energy complementary system among three entities (carbon market and green certificate market, comprehensive energy power generation, active emission reduction), with high carbon reduction cost but good effect. Moreover, the strategy selection of government departments is stable, while the strategy selection of the other two entities is affected by parameter stability conditions . Based on the industrial energy demand of economic growth and the requirements of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality in stages, a " three-step" policy coordinated development path is proposed to promote the efficient operation of the multi-energy complementary system.

       

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