分布式零碳能源规模化发展与产业空间格局重构——新经济地理学产业空间集聚模型的适用性辨析

    Scale-up of Distributed Zero-Carbon Energy and Reconstruction of Industrial Spatial Patterns—Discussion on the Applicability of Industrial Spatial Agglomeration Model in New Economic Geography

    • 摘要: 新经济地理学从集聚力和分散力的角度来阐述空间结构变化,并且大多数新经济地理学模型重点研究了产业空间分布和知识溢出、环境污染等因素的关系,考虑到具有垄断特质的化石能源在碳中和时代导向下转向具有分散特质的零碳可再生能源为主的大趋势,进而对产业空间分布特征产生相应的影响。在传统新经济地理学模型的基础上,构建了一个以中心和外围地区为基础的经济地理模型,涵盖了非能源、化石能源(包括核能)和可再生能源三个不同部门,同时考虑了劳动力、资本和能源三个要素,并将可再生能源消费份额的提升作为重要的分散力。研究发现:化石能源和可再生能源消费份额的大小会影响中心和外围地区的资本收益率差异的长期均衡效用水平,并且可再生能源份额上升会导致中心地区的影响力趋于减弱;通过数值模拟来分析贸易自由度变化对产业空间均衡分布的影响,发现提高零碳可再生能源利用水平后,在产业空间分布格局所呈现的“中心-外围”形式中,中心地区的集聚力趋于弱化,外围地区的分散力得以强化;以零碳能源为要素的可再生能源系统能够使得产业空间组织方式发生变化,并推动经济空间集聚发展向均衡发展方向转变。可见可再生能源发展对产业空间布局所产生的影响,表现为推动能源生产结构由垄断集中向扁平分散化方向转移的动能,从而提速零碳能源的生产和消费革命,加速转轨别离化石能源。

       

      Abstract: New economic geography explains spatial structural changes from the perspective of agglomeration and dispersion forces. Most new economic geography models focus on the relationship between the spatial distribution of industries and factors such as knowledge spillovers and environmental pollution. Considering the ongoing trend in the carbon-neutral era, where monopolistic fossil fuels are being replaced by decentralized, zero-carbon renewable energy sources, this shift will have corresponding effects on industrial spatial distribution patterns. Building on traditional new economic geography models, this study constructs a geographic economic model based on core and peripheral regions, encompassing three sectors: non-energy, fossil energy (including nuclear energy), and renewable energy. The model also takes into account three production factors: labor, capital, and energy, with the increase in the share of renewable energy consumption serving as an important dispersive force. The study finds that the relative shares of fossil and renewable energy consumption influence the long-term equilibrium utility level of capital return rate differentials between core and peripheral regions, ultimately weakening the influence of core regions. Through numerical simulations analyzing the impact of trade liberalization on the equilibrium distribution of industrial space, it is shown that increasing the use of zero-carbon renewable energy weakens the agglomeration force of core regions and strengthens the dispersive force of peripheral regions within the "core-periphery" structure of industrial spatial distribution. A renewable energy system driven by zero-carbon energy can transform the structure of industrial space and promote a shift from agglomerated economic growth to more balanced spatial development. It is evident that the development of renewable energy has a significant impact on the spatial distribution of industries, as it drives a shift in energy production from a monopolistic, centralized structure to a more distributed and decentralized form. This dynamic accelerates the revolution in zero-carbon energy production and consumption, hastening the transition away from fossil fuels.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回